After 30 years of a mummified political existence, the Egyptian political scene exploded into protests and unrest last week, threatening to destabilize the Arab world’s largest country.

Although the Egyptian financial markets barely register from a global perspective, the unrest reminded investors that the world remains a risky place. The US dollar rose, gold perked up and oil, which is not a big Egyptian export, was back on the rise.

If you read Stratfor.com’s excellent coverage of the crisis, you will note that the most likely outcome for this crisis is a fresh face from the military who will rapidly move to:

1. close down the Muslim Brotherhood,
2. shore up the US alliance, and
3. quietly assure Israel that the 1977 Peace Deal is still in effect.

But the fireworks along the Northern bit of Africa are not the only worry in the world.

US Growth

In a detailed letter this week, John Mauldin takes apart the latest US GDP numbers and finds that there were more statistics than recovery in the numbers. It makes for interesting reading, especially when one considers how the inventory numbers change because of the change in oil prices over the quarter. The issue of US growth is tremendously important because much of the world’s monetary policy (in particular, the fast growing developing markets like China) are tied to the FED through fixed or nearly fixed exchange rates. Weak growth means that the FED will continue to err on the side of accommodation, which means that US interest rates will remain low until the bond market rebels and/or inflation becomes too obvious to hide.

The US economy is starting to pick up but at a growth rate well below that of previous post recession recoveries.

Inflation

Related to the sluggish US growth rates and resultant accommodative monetary policy, it looks like we will see commodities surge ahead once again. In this week’s rankings, Silver (SLV) and Food (DBA) score highly with Base Metals (DBB) and Oil (OIL) putting in lower but respectable scores. Commodity Related ETFs like Russia (RSX), Global Energy (IXC), and Fidelity Funds like Select Energy (FSENX) and Natural Resources (FNARX) are also near the top of our various portfolio lists.

The strength is due to the solid demand for these commodities which is driven in no small part by the massive supply of dollars floating around the globe. The desire to turn the seemingly unlimited supply of dollars into more supply restrained commodities looks set to remain a theme for the foreseeable future. Higher prices will eventually entice more suppliers onto the market but the lag should be prolonged enough to make some money from the next leg of the commodities rally.

Sovereign Debt Crisis: Japan

Another story that should have caused more concern than it did was the downgrade of Japan’s long term debt by S&P. The rating drop from AA to AA- doesn’t seem momentous compared with some of the sovereign crises we have experienced over the past couple of years. However, two things bear watching. The first is that ratings agencies historically have been behind the curve in downgrading sovereign debt. If S&P is downgrading now, this may be the start of a more serious cycle. The second question to ask is: “Who will buy Japanese debt?” In the past, this was not a terribly interesting question because the bulk of JGBs (around 94%) were absorbed domestically. With the aging of Japan, it is not unreasonable to expect that the robust savings rate, which allowed Japan to self fund its government debt, will shift into reverse. Last year the Japan Post Bank (the biggest owner of JGBs at more than 20% of the total) announced that it would no longer be a net buyer from 2011. According to the Economist, gross debt to GDP is an eye watering 190% and rising (although other sources already quote figures in the 200% plus range) so having a major buyer like the world’s largest bank (by deposits) pull out of the market is not a small issue. The pricing mechanism for JGBs looks set to change as foreign investors are asked to bid for bigger slices of Japanese debt. On the negative side, it will not take much of an interest rate hike to overwhelm Japan’s fiscal budget with interest expenses. On the positive side, the pressure from the bond market could be enough to spur Japan to enact much needed but unpopular reforms that could set the stage for an escape from two lost decades. However, any good news will only come after a period of painful adjustment.

So what should an investor do?

We think the best approach is not to run away from risk but to manage it. The recovery from the Global Financial Crisis has been rocky and looking around at some of the overheating in China, the rolling sovereign debt crises along the rim of the EU and now the turbulence in the Arab world, it is obvious that some of these trends will lead to trouble down the line. We think the solution lies in identifying and monitoring a fairly broad universe of asset classes and recognizing that the institutional money in the market will be draw towards and scared away from different asset classes at different times. By deploying one’s investment funds in the asset classes that are benefitting from the rising tide and avoiding those where sentiment is draining away, we think one can achieve a solid return on one’s portfolio despite the generally directionless but highly volatile overall direction of the financial markets.

CIVETS anyone?

We have received a number of questions about the CIVETS market (Columbia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa) and how they compare to the previous emerging markets grouping, the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China). We decided to see how far along in the cycle we might be by using the System to pick when and where to invest in each grouping.

So, if you were wondering if it was too late to jump on the bandwagon, this chart suggests that there is still some money to be made in CIVETS.

As we cross the midway mark on January, the various portfolios that we run under the Fund King System are all pointing in the same general direction. Commodities (metals, softs and energy), and US sectors – tech, regional banks (acquisition targets) and small caps are all clustering around the top of the rankings.

Part of the reason is the stimulus package which came attached as a condition of continuing the Bush tax cuts beyond their expiration date. According to this article in Zerohedge, the payroll tax cut and the “Make Work Pay” tax credit will amount to 180 billion in stimulus this year. Add in the main premise of the article, that non-paying mortgages amount to a stealth stimulus, and much of this year’s expected GDP growth is coming from non-renewable sources. What is not stressed in the article is that the $1.4 trillion dollars in non-paying but not yet foreclosed mortgages amounts to 10% of US GDP. Some of that money will be recovered eventually when the foreclosed houses are sold but it is safe to say that in the meantime a big chunk of wealth is tied up in the process.

But if the US were the only economy to consider, commodities would be heading down rather than up. Commodities are rising because developing countries are importing the incredibly loose monetary policy of the US through linked exchange rates (or simply a desire to stay export competitive). Whether one thinks China is growing at 7% or 10% (and there is a range of opinion even within China’s government), a near zero percent accommodative monetary regime is not the correct policy response. A number of articles comparing today’s situation with the Asian Crisis of 1997-98 have started to connect the dots which is why there are so many warnings of overheating in China (ie. we have all seen this movie before and we know how it ends). The flooding in Australia may add further pressure to the inflation picture. Coking coal is a key ingredient in steel production and the flooding in Queensland has temporarily suspended production at mines which amounts to an estimated 40% of world supply.

Which of these trends has staying power? Small caps are famous for running out of steam as soon as February rolls around. Regional bank acquisitions might trundle on for longer because the industry is due for consolidation and the banks at the top of the feeding chain are not only TBTF (too big to fail) but enjoy preferred access to Central Bank funding. The jury is out on the tech surge. If cashed up corporations are ready to invest in productivity enhancements, there might be a sustainable trend. If the improvements are just part of the inventory restocking, then the sector will fall back next quarter. Only the upward pressure on commodity prices appears to have staying power for now. So, watch the System closely because we are likely to see leadership changes in the coming two or three months.

Seeking Alpha Portfolio

This week is a good time to review what we have in the 20 ETF Universe and start to plan for any changes we might want to make at the three month mark which is coming up in three weeks.

The changes will center around correcting for my bias in favor of Emerging Markets and Asia, potentially removing SPY because it is too broadly based and adding at least one fixed income asset class.

A quick review of the performance of the portfolio: We are currently holding 250 shares of IXC (Global Energy), 550 shares of EWT (Taiwan MSCI), and 160 shares of EWW (Mexico Investible) plus $659.85 in cash. So far we have racked up $87.45 in commissions and $1,450.50 in short term capital losses. The portfolio was up 2.1% last week so we are still underwater in week 9 with a total loss of 1.86%. We started with $30k on November 15th and at Friday’s close, we are looking at $29,441.95.

As you can see from the ranking, there is no need for any switches this week.

As we pointed out last week, the yield curve in the US dollar is just too attractive for any profit seeking financial institution to ignore. Until the trade becomes less attractive or something better comes along, expect continued US dollar strength. (DXY is the dollar index; UUP is an ETF which closely tracks the DXY).

Source: Bloomberg

Why is the yield curve so steep?

The short term (or left hand) end of the curve is anchored by government fiat (in the US through the agency of an independent Federal Reserve). Many pundits, experts and others expend tremendous resources to divine the inner thoughts of the men and women in charge of that decision. However, it does not take away from the fact that the Fed Funds rate is set by committee and not the market. The rest of the curve is determined by pure supply and demand. Will this always lead to a steep curve? No. Sometimes the Federal Reserve needs to squeeze inflation out of the system in which case, a higher than otherwise expected Fed Funds rate is decided upon. Under the right circumstances, that can lead to an “inverted curve” of high short rates and lower medium and long term rates.

Supply

On the supply side of the equation, with a US Federal deficit running well over 10% of GDP per annum for the foreseeable future, it is clear that we will not run out of US government debt instruments any time soon. Such a large and growing supply should and does fuel downward price pressure (and upward yield pressure) on the long end of the market. Those investors who fear that ever larger government spending programs will eventually lead to system wide inflation are amongst those who worry about the supply dynamics of the treasury market. When you hear a “Treasury Bear” argument which is framed entirely in terms of future supply, be careful with the recommendation because it is build upon only half the story. Supply is not the only factor.

Demand

Demand is driven by rational economic calculation and emotion.

The rational economic calculation is a long term estimate of growth and inflation rates by which investors weigh the purchase of a medium or long term Treasury against alternative investment options. Those considerations are well discussed in the market and tend to change slowly on a quarter by quarter basis. Has something fundamental changed in the last three or four weeks? Possibly. The Euro’s foundation has been show to be a lot weaker than previously expected. That doesn’t impact US treasuries directly but it does reduce the attractiveness of Euro Government Debt instruments that compete for investor attention. Right now, the biggest source of demand comes from the banks who are able to borrow at the short end rate and “lend” it back to the US Government in the form of 2,3 and 4 year Treasuries.

The emotional side is responsible for the short term moves. Emotional factors are almost always couched in fundamental terms. Sometimes those short term emotional excuses will become longer term rational economic calculations. However two things are for sure. They start out as emotions and investors often don’t realize they are reacting to emotions because they rationalize the decisions as fundamental changes in the economic landscape. Very rarely will a fund manager get on TV to announce that he or she is petrified by the market and plans to hide in two year treasuries for the time being. It is much more likely to hear the fund manager point out two or three recent datapoints as justification for making a mid-course asset allocation adjustment.

What are the emotional buttons today? Europe has certainly provided the bulk of them lately but one shouldn’t forget the employment figures in the US, the retail figures (both can be bundled into general “double dip” recession fears), China’s property bubble and a myriad of other worries lurk in today’s financial markets.

The Giant Sucking Sound

In the 1992 Presidential Campaign, Ross Perot warned that the NAFTA trade agreement would move so many jobs from the US to Mexico that the result would be akin to a Giant Sucking Sound. If Ross Perot were in charge of the European Central Bank, he might be hearing that sound today as European financial institutions fall all over themselves and other global players to participate in the US dollar yield curve trade. The reason we do not hear Mr. Trichet moaning too loudly is because a weaker Euro is precisely what political leaders in Germany, France and Northern Italy want to see. From luxury goods to machine parts to wine, cheese, ham and sports cars, Europe’s exports will receive a nice short term boost. With capacity utilization at 75% and rising however, the fun cannot be allowed to continue indefinitely as Europe’s banks will need to refocus on bread and butter loans. So, while it is fun to attribute some sort of deeper meaning to the Euro heading back to parity with the US Dollar, larger fundamental forces in Europe will likely remove some of the demand for US dollars when European manufacturers try to expand on the back of strong export sales.

So, what does this mean for investors?

A rising dollar means that commodities (mostly priced in dollars) are unlikely to rise soon. Part of that is the dollar price tag but another part is falling demand from the Eurozone. Oil in particular can be quite sensitive on the downside to a strong US dollar.

With petroleum products like gasoline not rising (contrary to what normally happens during the US summer driving season) and European imports on sale, expect the mushy US retail numbers to improve through Labor Day at least. Consumers won’t necessarily spend just because gasoline prices are low but if there is a sale on as well, wallets should open. Therefore, we are not surprised to see VCR and XLY in the top rankings of the system.

Will GLD perform well? Not likely. Short term Treasuries and Gold are competing for the attention of the panic stricken investor. If we toss in near term US dollar strength, the balance tips from non-yielding gold to low yielding treasuries. Of course, all of these conditions are reversible so if one sees gold correct nicely in the coming months ($800-900), a sensible investment opportunity may present itself on the next upcycle.

How about equities by region? Small caps are showing continued resilience in the US but there is not much conviction behind the trade. Large caps, as represented by SPY, are not going anywhere with a very slim preference for Value (slightly ahead) over Growth (slightly behind). Large Cap European stocks (FEZ, for example) are at the bottom of the rankings as the sovereign debt issues play out at large European banks, swamping the positive benefits accruing to the large export manufacturers. Emerging Europe is still promising as it will benefit from export driven outsourcing from Germany as well as M&A opportunities as mature European corporates are compelled to switch focus from expensive US dollar based assets to cheaper Euro linked asset markets.

Asia is a mixed bag. Japan’s equity market looks to be cooling off a bit as the Yen is the only other currency as strong as the US dollar. China is at the bottom of the list for largely internal reasons related to the unwinding of a property bubble while India is close to the top of the rankings. Other Asian markets, which are tied to the US dollar, are in the middle of the pack and can be safely underweighted at this point.