Precious Metals Archives

The “Great Rotation” and Risk

The FundLogik Application continues to point towards a risk weighting. For most portfolios, that means a shift towards equities and away from fixed income.

Last week, we looked at one of the main currents of money flow which drives global financial markets. This week, we look at the factors which drive the money flows into one of the key asset classes available to investors: Equities.

How Wall Street views Equities

According to the collective judgement of investors on Wall Street, a dollar of earnings this year will cost $15 if you select the average Blue Chip stock from the S&P 500. And, for the optimists in the room, that $15 dollar figure for stocks falls to $12.30 if one looks forward to 2014 earnings rather than backwards to 2012 numbers. That same dollar of earnings will cost you $50 if your tastes run to 10 Year US Treasury Bonds. As bond interest is fixed, there is no need to calculate a rosy scenario.

To Wall Street strategists, this big price difference between equities and fixed income suggests an imminent “Great Rotation” from bonds to stocks as rational investors rebalance between relatively expensive bonds and cheaper equities.

Three Factors

Three FactorsAre they right? The answer is yes but probably not for the reason usually pushed to the front of the research report (stocks are cheap, bonds are expensive). There are three factors which drive stocks and stock markets: Earnings, Interest Rates and Risk.

Earnings: Supportive of Equities

If you limit your focus to quarterly earnings and consensus forecasts, you will see an exciting jump in expectations at the beginning of this year. The numbers that go into the overall S&P 500 estimate are important because most institutional money is benchmarked to the index or a close derivative thereof. If you are interested in some of the key biases which drive the consensus forecast process, ZeroHedge has an insightful article on the subject.

Earnings pop
Source: Bloomberg

Before one gets too excited, let’s step back and view a couple of years at once. The phenomenon highlighted with the small red arrows is known as “earnings roll.” Analysts, who are employed by brokerage firms in the business of selling stocks to clients, push their numbers up in the beginning of the year and then adjust them as quarterly reports come out.

Earnings roll
Source: Bloomberg

So, if you look at the red line on the second chart (which charts the running 12 month forward forecast), earnings are moving in a positive direction but not dramatically. This is supportive of the market but not enough to make the case for a “Great Rotation” on its own.

Interest Rates: Neutral for Equities

This is an easy call because all the Central Banks are working in concert to keep a lid on interest rates. These generational lows in US dollar interest rates have hardly spurred the borrowing and investment boom that some Keynesians had expected. But with debt levels reaching what some consider dangerous levels relative to GDP, few G-20 countries want to think about servicing their debts at high single digit interest rate levels. Rising rates are bad for stocks, falling rates are good. Interestingly, there are new studies suggesting that low and steady levels of interest rates do not correspond to above average stock market returns while high and steady do not necessarily mean poor performance. With no movement expected up or down, this part of the equation is neutral.

Risk: Positive for Equities

The Chicago Board of Options Exchange has an excellent index for measuring the level of risk in the short term (ie. a matter of a month or two) called the VIX. Although this is often cited as The Fear Index in the market, it is important to remember what it is actually used for on a day-to-day basis: pricing options. A high reading certainly does reveal high anxiety in the market and a low reading, relative calm but the measure is by design a short term one.

The risk we are trying to measure is the certainty of forecasts. To give a simple example, the range of expectations for a consumer products company like Proctor and Gamble are much narrower than they might be for United Continental. While the former may stumble in an emerging market or be subject to margin squeeze, the latter can see profits quickly turn to losses with an adverse move in jet fuel prices. Broadly speaking, the tighter range of expectations command higher Price/Earnings ratios (P/E) while the broader range means the company (or the market) is accorded a lower P/E.

Macro factors can also be measured in a similar fashion. When the range of possibilities are uncertain (think some of the hyperbolic commentary ahead of the “Fiscal Cliff”), investors respond with caution and P/E ratios tend to fall. When uncertainties drop away, investors are willing to bid up asset prices and P/E multiples expand.

With the European Central Bank commitment to support the Euro at almost all costs, the passing of the “Fiscal Cliff” and the realization that the trajectory of US Government Debt issuance is likely to pursue a more sedate upward trajectory while the underlying economy continues to grow at a lower but sustained pace, some of the big worries in the market are being calmed.

If one wants a proxy (rather than anecdotal assurances), a reasonable measure of longer term anxiety is the spot gold price. With the arrivals of ETFs, gold is certainly cheaper to hold but the shiny metal still provides no income. Investors buy gold because they are willing to forego income to hedge against the risks they perceive in other asset classes. The FundLogik application and just a cursory look at the charts show that the upward trajectory of gold has cooled dramatically.

Conclusion

The FundLogik application has been flashing “Buy Riskier Assets” since November last year. Now we are starting to see that the market has been a good leading indicator as the conditions for better earnings and a less volatile environment shape up.

Keep holding onto the riskier end of your watch lists…and as they say on the airplane, “sit back, relax and enjoy the ride.”

May You Live in Interesting Times

Despite well telegraphed intentions, the Standard and Poor’s downgrade of US Government long term debt still came as a big shock to most investors. The markets have and will continue to react accordingly. Expect high volatility and no small amount of panic.

Economist CoverWith the US economy barely growing (latest reading at 1.6% for 2Q), the next question is the one which we find on the cover of the Economist this week. The magazine and other sources like ECRI are not willing to say for sure that there will be a second recession but are warning that the chances for a double dip are on the rise. The popular image is of the US economy being like a slow moving bicycle…the slower it moves, the more easily it can tip over. Like most easy images, this one obscures more than clarifies. As the impact of the tsunami in Japan on global supply chains demonstrated, the US economy is far more complicated than a bicycle.

Earnings are pretty good

While politicians are doing their utmost to stymie growth in the US, on the earnings side S&P500 companies have turned in positive numbers. In the latest round of reporting, the earnings have grown at just under 18% or about 5 percentage points better than expected. How can the largest listed corporations in the US be earning better than expected profits with the US economy so close to “stall speed”? The magic trick is achieved by non-US sourced earnings which may account for as much as 50% of the total (up from less than 40% before the onset of the Global Financial Crisis). The developing world continues to develop a middle class that is keen to acquire the trappings of their recently improved status.

Valuations are out of line

The dichotomy between the US economy and its leading corporations is part of the reason why there has been a disconnect in the “Fed Model” which compares the interest yield on the current 10 year Treasury to the inverse of the PE ratio (otherwise known as the “earnings yield”). If 50% of the earnings used in the earnings yield calculation are from non-US sources, comparing that result with a less than free market rate on 10 year US Treasuries (thanks to QE2) is an exercise in GIGO (garbage in, garbage out) financial modeling.

What should an investor do?

In the case of risky assets, one should be watching for short term opportunities at this point. SPY is very oversold (see chart) so even though the long-term outlook is unclear, there will no doubt be a rebound as soon as the panic subsides and cooler heads move in to pick up the pieces.

SPY is oversold

Otherwise, continue to monitor the situation from the sidelines. Gold will continue to move up as investors who are extremely risk adverse will look for havens beyond short term US Treasuries. If one thinks about gold as a low inflation currency, it is not hard to fathom its latest appeal. Of the 100 largest ETFs listed in the US, IAU and GLD remain at the top of the rankings. Health Care, Biotechs and Pharmaceuticals are also found amongst the top 20 but the ratings are far from conclusive at these single digit levels.

Presidential Cycles and Australia

This week, there will be no newsletter as we are on the road in Australia.

What does Australia and year three of the US Presidential cycle have to do with each other? Usually, there would not be much of a connection.

But this year, there is a connection.

To over simplify, we are in year three of the cycle, the time when an incumbent President has to make sure the economy is as stimulated as possible so that the voters will give him another four years in the White House. As a result, it is often a good year to invest in risk assets like equities.

In this cycle, growth is coming from government spending and monetary expansion. And, while the Republicans may still get to repeat their temporary government shutdown routine (maybe they can avoid the political backlash this time), the expansionary policies at the FED are harder to stop.

That means we will continue to see inflationary money creation in the world’s reserve currency. And, since the money cannot all be put to work in the US economy, it will continue to fuel asset and commodity price growth around the globe.

How does that money get around the globe and into local economies? Primarily through Central Banks’ efforts to keep currencies from moving up against the US dollar, the FED’s accommodative policy is being exported to countries (like China) where inflationary expectations have already taken hold.

Australia is one of the places where these pressures will become most evident. As a major producer of agricultural and industrial commodities, it is a secondary beneficiary of the FED’s inflation creating policies. Not only has China’s boom created strong demand for iron ore, coal and other resources, it has also sent a wave of investment capital towards the continent sized country. This has ignited a surge in M&A activity as well as frothy real estate markets. The Reserve Bank of Australia has moved short rates about as high as politically possible (mortgages are mostly floating rate) so the next thing to go is the currency which has just crossed the 1.05 mark (FXA). If the Aussie dollar continues towards 1.10 and 1.20 as local investors expect, that’s a strong signal that one’s investments need to be well placed for an inflationary environment.

This week, for example, the base metal ETF (DBB) nudged the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) out of the top 3 in the Seeking Alpha ETF Portfolio. The main aim of the Fund King System is to track major investment flows to keep one’s money deployed in the most promising corners of one’s investment universe. Right now, it looks like major investors are positioning even more towards the inflation trade,

Living in Interesting Times

Looking back on the first quarter, an impressive amount of the big news has hit the market. The political unrest across Northern Africa and the Middle East has entangled the US Military in its third shooting war, Japan endured the triple disaster of earthquakes, tsunami and partial nuclear meltdown, the European sovereign bailout took political prisoners in German elections and the largest bond fund manager announced that it had cashed out of US Treasuries. In the US, the housing market seems to have sprung some new leaks below the waterline.

What will the next few quarters bring?

One great place to start is ECRI’s Weekly leading index series which shows that the positive momentum is starting to taper off.This does not mean another recession is on the way, just that the current surge in the leading indicators (which correlate highly with the discussion and implementation of QE2) appears to have lost its head of steam.

ECRI
Source: Economic Cycle Research Institute

What does this mean?

Investors are right to wonder how the markets for risk assets can be bogging down when there is still an estimated one-third of the QE2 campaign to be injected into the system? Part of the reason is that the likelihood of a QE3 has become more remote as even FED governors start to question the need to continue pumping liquidity into the system. Another part of the reason is due to the fact that much of the newly created money was used by big owners of long dated treasuries (Chinese government, PIMCO and others) to purchase other assets. The increase in base money did not have the desired multiplier effect because it was not used as fuel to create new credit in the commercial banking system. In the land of M2 money supply figures where most of us live, QE2 was a fizzle.

Last Spike?

Fed BASE
Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank

Pushing on a String?

Base
Source: Shadowstats.com

Just over 4% growth in M2

M2
Source: Shadowstats.com

The other side of the coin

Yield CurveFor the big financial institutions who have access to cheap FED funding (or paying very little on demand deposits), the current state of affairs is still very attractive.But, as the situation remains very fluid, banks have shown a marked preference for Government paper (Treasuries, Agencies and Agency MBS) which can, in theory, be liquidated much more quickly than private mortgages and corporate loans.

But the banks are still burdened with a large backlog of toxic assets. Recent buoyant earnings reports and the cash flows behind them will not last if the whole yield curve gets shifted upwards by inflation or even just stronger economic performance.

Borrowing short and lending long works very well in flat or falling interest rate environments. Although we have seen lower interest rates recently, the FED has spent its political capital as quickly as it has built its balance sheet. Lower interest rates seem very unlikely in the medium term.

Sell in May and Go Away?

SADoes this mean we will reach another “Sell in May and Go Away” moment when QE2 runs its course? The numbers have been slipping from the 20’s to the teens in most of the Systems that we track, which suggests a cautious outlook.

As investments start to fall out of the top rankings and you look around for the new investment opportunities, it might be time to take a bit of money off the table and wait to see what opportunities arise after the next bit of bad news rattles the well priced equity markets.

The commodity sector suggests that not all of the optimism in the market is warranted. Most of the strength in the short term remains in Silver (SLV), which has just hit new multi-decade highs and traditionally serves as a store of value as well as an industrial metal. And despite exclusion from core CPI figures, the energy ETFs like UGA, USO, UHN and DBE are all running stronger than economic growth in the G8 economies might warrant (or appreciate).

A Shiny Example

SLV has had a nice run since breaking north of $30 in the middle of February. That is not news but a checkable fact. For those investors who noticed that SLV was at the top of their rankings since July 12th of last year (when SLV closed at $17.62), it was a good opportunity to make money in a relatively non-correlated asset class. The only time it got sticky was at the beginning of this year when the price corrected.

The reason that we bring this up is not to brag. While SLV has done well, other investments that have made it into the top rankings have fared less well. The point is that most of those investments were eventually replaced by new market movers while SLV has hung in at the top of the lists despite the 10% correction that we saw in January. While we may have worried in these posts that the rerating between Gold and Silver may have run most of its course, the System kept pointing out that there was strong momentum behind the asset and that there were not that many more promising assets out there at the weekly measurement points.

My only slight regret…not swapping GLD for SLV a few weeks back when I was adjusting my Seeking Alpha ETF Portfolio. I would have looked very clever. But, in calmer moments, I realize that the regret and the emotion behind that regret is precisely why one should use an unemotional system to help execute one’s investment plan.

So, should you buy SLV now? Well, that all depends. Does it make sense as part of your universe? And, if it does, ask why? Make sure that you are not adding at this point because of past performance. Make sure that it is in there because you think other investors are worried about the US dollar or you think there is a chance that the Biomedical uses of silver are poised to go through the roof. In short, remember to separate the Asset Selection process from the Asset Trading process. And what happens when something better comes along in your universe? That’s easy, switch.

A Tarnished Example

Now that PIMCO has finally gotten it through to folks that, yes, they really are not keen on US Government paper (no link…too many choices), let’s look at how two bellwethers fared in the Fund King System.

TLT (which tracks 20 year plus US Treasuries) has been at or near the bottom of the US Sector ETF Universe since the beginning of November 2010. And less long term TLH (tracking 10-20 year Treasuries) has joined the bottom of the pile in another ETF portfolio since the end of November.

So, whether you were in the “Don’t Fight the Fed” or “Hyperinflation Around the Corner” camp, the Fund King System told you to steer clear of the asset class for the last three months. Even the FED could not buy up enough long dated Treasuries to keep TLT from dropping 10% over the period. Mr. Gross, the head of PIMCO noted in his newsletter that the FED has been buying as much as 70% of the newly issued Treasuries of late.

What does it mean?

There is nothing wrong with SLV , TLT or TLH in absolute terms. Each of these ETFs represents claims on perfectly good assets. The deep meaning to take away from these two examples is that it does not pay to fight the trends. If investors (on balance) are shifting money out of US Treasuries and into hard assets like Silver, there is little point in trying to stand in the way. At some point, the tides of money will change directions and other asset classes will get swept up or down. When interest rates rise a couple hundred basis points, Bill Gross and his PIMCO colleagues will be back on the bid side. Why? Because they are in the business to make money; and money is made by buying low and selling high.

An interesting read

Supporters of Ron Paul can sometimes be a prickly bunch. But, they occasionally come up with very thought provoking concepts.

I like a good bash so when I came across an article entitled: “How to End the Federal Reserve System” by Gary North, I was prepared for a rehash of the old arguments about an evil cabal on Jekyll Island in 1910. But the real strength of the article comes about halfway through when Mr. North analyzes the demise of a government agency which had also been granted monopoly powers: the US Postal Service. He draws some interesting parallels about what technology could do to the Federal Reserve System long before Ron Paul and his supporters in Congress are able to rescind the Fed’s legal mandate.

Basically, the ability to move into other currencies with a few well place computer key strokes or even to develop new mediums of exchange means that even an institution as powerful and influential as the Federal Reserve is not immune from obsolescence.

Part of the appeal of ETFs like GLD and SLV is that they are theoretically redeemable into a fixed amount of Gold and Silver respectively. While pitched as a new idea, the concept of convertibility into precious metals was once the cornerstone of the US dollar’s value (and most other currencies before that). In an interconnected world that can work with services like PayPal, it’s probably only a matter of time before someone reinvents a multinational global fractional banking and payment system backed by gold, silver or some other store of value. If it is tied into Visa, Mastercard and American Express, one need not worry about carrying about sacks of heavy metal to the grocery store. Just as email eclipsed the first class letter (something that was unthinkable as recently as 20 years ago), there is a risk of a new currency system taking the premier spot occupied by the US dollar today.

Just because the risk exists, however, does not mean it will come to pass. The biggest difference between the US Post Office and the Federal Reserve is that the latter is a privately owned, profit seeking entity. Long before we are all paid in PayPal credits or Googles, the Federal Reserve (which is owned by and represents the largest US banks) will feel compelled to take steps to shore up the value of the US dollar. That more than anything else will lead to a change in policy that will likely see higher interest rates in the not too distant future.

While you are pondering your long term investment strategy, make sure to include a plan for higher interest rates.

What happens to Japan now?

The earthquake and tsunami that hit Japan on Friday will impact the country and the economy in ways that are hard to foresee at the moment. Despite the shocking video and photos, however, the natural disasters are unlikely to have a significant long term impact on the economy. As long as the authorities can keep the nuclear fallout to a minimum, the biggest issue will be reconstruction and who will buy the fresh batch of JGBs. That points to another force for higher than near zero interest rates in the world’s #3 economy.

From an investors’ point of view, the Nikkei 225 was the best of a weak bunch (Asia has lagged since November of last year) in our universe of 11 Asian indices as of Friday’s rankings. The earthquake and tsunami do not significantly change the long term public finance fundamentals of the country and most of the familiar exporting names have transferred significant portions of their manufacturing base to locations around the world in the last few decades.

Should you buy? If your universe is only Asian Equities: then perhaps. But, if you are looking at a broader range of asset classes, there are quite a few commodity based ones that look more attractive. As Japan is import dependent for almost all of its commodity needs, there are better places to invest your money.

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