Traditionally in the US, January is a time for chasing small caps. The NASDAQ has outpaced the S&P 500 almost 7% to 4.6% so far this month. In Asia, some of the larger markets will close or be affected by the closures around the Chinese New Year Holiday. Since the New Year will be a Dragon Year, expect at least a few strong sessions when markets reopen.
What does this mean for riskier assets? A bullish forecast off the back of a January rally is a dangerous one. Right now, the positives and potential negatives suggest another volatile year.
Housing Stocks Come Back to Life
There is no doubt that the US is starting to rouse from the GFC imposed slumber. A Financial Crisis induced recession is harder to bounce back from than the more common inventory cycle recession. One consequence (amongst many) is that one traditional avenue of entrepreneurial capital (residential real estate) has not be readily available to finance new business start-ups because of falling housing prices and general bank reluctance to extend credit to the private sector. That deep freeze appears to be thawing a bit. The bellwethers of the US domestic housing market (ITB and XHB for ETFs, LOW, HD, PHM, and LEN for individual stocks) have turned up strongly. Will this be a “head fake” like the last time XHB surged from July 8th 2009 to April 23rd 2010 (+89%)? Perhaps, but with other positive “green shoots”, this surge (from October 4th 2011, +58%) may not reverse as dramatically as the last one. Given the sharp run-up and some good earnings reports, don’t be surprised if there is a correction in the coming weeks, though.
The housing sector bears watching. If entrepreneurs can unlock capital in residential housing, the Great American Job Creation Machine can crank back into gear (recent job report numbers are rounding errors compared to what they should be for a full blooded recovery).
Summer in Europe?
Unfortunately in our interconnected world, the troubles brewing in Europe still look likely to cause more heartburn in the next few months. There is little doubt that Europe has failed to sort out the sovereign debt crisis of its periphery to the satisfaction of financial markets. Credit agency downgrades only confirm what most market players have been saying for months…the sums do not add up. The next “final deal” will just be one of a series of “deals” that will see a series of painful writedowns for the banks. Bank Capital is being bolstered largely by clever accounting tricks these days. And with hedge funds buying up troubled sovereign debt and relatively cheap Credit Default Swaps, the prospect for an orderly “voluntary” haircut looks somewhat diminished. The rot is spreading from the periphery to the core and until the Germans are forced to make some hard political decisions, the rot will continue to spread inward.
So what is left for Europe? Very likely…devaluation.
In a rambling article for Bloomberg, two professors from MIT make the case that Italy is crucial to the Euro’s survival and that unlike most other European countries, Italy has a significant amount of trade outside the EU (55% of exports according to the authors). Given those two factors, a Euro trading at parity with the US dollar should help Northern Italian exporters boost exports enough to make a difference. And, since Italy boasts a massive and vulnerable bond market, any improvement should help to relieve pressure on the Euro’s long term survival as a common currency (ETF: FXE).
How will this play in the US and other emerging markets?
In the short term, it means that a summer holiday in Europe might be a great bargain. In the medium to longer term, a more competitive Europe could hamper any manufacturing renaissance in the US as a large swing in exchange rates allow German exporters to price more keenly than US Midwestern component makers (and makers of commercial aircraft). For China, the authorities in Beijing probably have enough fiscal and monetary firepower to overcome the negative effects of a Euro devaluation (the Eurozone is both a large customer and competitor of China).
One can only guess whether China will continue to diversify its foreign exchange holdings into Euros. Given the likelihood of a significantly lower exchange rate in the not too distant future, it would not be surprising to see the People’s Bank directing its traders towards other currencies for the time being. Given the massive size of the foreign exchange reserves and China’s desire to hold down domestic inflation, the US dollar is probably the only reasonable home for recycling the trade surplus (ETF: UUP).