Emerging Markets Archives

Reaching Along the Risk Curve

As we break for the MLK holiday, it is a good time to look at where “January Effect” has taken us. In the case of individual stocks, there have been some good performances but the core US indices have largely consolidated the “Fiscal Cliff Deal” gains. We were up just over 4% in the [ppopup id="3860"]S&P 500 index[/ppopup], same as this time last year. Because of [ppopup id="3914"]AAPL[/ppopup], the [ppopup id="3862"]Q’s[/ppopup] are only up 3%, against 6% last year. Earnings season has started and although companies are expected to beat their well whispered numbers on the whole, the overall growth in earnings in not expected to crack much above the 3% mark. So, with unemployment still high, developed market economic growth anemic and most of the problems of the last few years being kicked down the road, it is perhaps not surprising that the markets are pausing at these levels.

But the market looks forward and we should see some New Year optimism in the form of boosted earnings expectations and aspirations. So far, most of the enthusiasm appears to be in the emerging markets with East Asia, led by China, taking point. In last week’s issue, we looked at some of the options available there. [ppopup id="3915"]FXI[/ppopup] and [ppopup id="3916"]HAO[/ppopup] look promising.

This week, we sneak a peek at two reasonable sized funds in the emerging markets that are often overlooked by investors ([ppopup id="3917"]EPI[/ppopup] at $1.3bn in assets and [ppopup id="3918"]TUR[/ppopup] at $900m in assets).

India

India is an emerging market but it can hardly be described as a new one. The BSE (Bombay Stock Exchange) started up in 1875, making it Asia’s first exchange. As a result of the markets relative maturity, [ppopup id="3917"]EPI[/ppopup] is a well balanced fund with only a quarter of its assets in financials and a good spread of Energy (21%), Information Technology (12%), Materials (11%) and Industrials (10%). Although the growth rates have cooled in the past few years, the years of strong growth and economic reform have lifted a huge segment of the population into the middle class. This has led to a huge consumption boom of everything from gold to apartments to laundry powder. India’s politics are messy and its relations with its neighbors are a work in progress, but it would be foolish to overlook the huge population and very favorable demographics (especially vis-à-vis China’s).

Turkey

Turkey is a more typical emerging market when one looks at the make-up of [ppopup id="3918"]TUR[/ppopup]. The fund is heavily weighted (52%) to financials. Industrials (12%), Consumer Staples (11%), Telecoms (8%) and Materials (6%) round out the top five sectors. Turkey is exciting because its geographic and cultural positions look very promising in the medium and longer term. As a secular Islamic state, it is well accepted in the Middle East both diplomatically and commercially. As a NATO ally, it demands a seat at the EU table (although France resists). And culturally, the Turkic people of the oil rich ex-Soviet republics along Russia’s southern border are promising consumers and business partners. Like India, Turkey has a few domestic and diplomatic issues that are far from sorted. The only cautionary note for an investor is the local currency, the Lira. Because the ETF is so heavily weighted towards financials, weakness in the currency can drag performance down.

Stick With Risk

January Effect still looks to be alive and well as developed markets hold onto gains and emerging markets show continued strength. Stay exposed to risk assets for the time being.

China: Taking the Temperature

Continuing on from last week’s topic, we look East for signs of a stronger or weaker January effect for riskier assets.

Washington Beltway antics have not gone away (eg. the new Treasury Secretary’s loopy signature). But we think investors should focus on the Global Economy, where companies big, medium and small struggle for sales and profits.

One interesting corner of the Global Economy is China. While there are over 100 ETFs with China exposure (courtesy of ETFdb.com), by screening out sub-$100m funds, one can limit oneself to just 6 ETFs for consideration. FXI is by far the largest (with similarly profiled GXC and MCHI taking #2 and #3 slots) while HAO, PGJ and CHIQ offer exposure to different and smaller segments of the Chinese economy.

What is interesting about the structure of the equities available in China is that they primarily offer exposure to the domestic economy. Exports may have been the important driver of the “China Miracle” but for fund managers and regular investors alike it has always been hard to pick up meaningful direct exposure.

Therefore, when looking at China going forward, it is important to look at indicators for the domestic economy. Two reliable indicators are the imported Iron Ore Price and Electricity Production.

Electricity

China's Electricity Production - Monthly
Source: Bloomberg

Electricity Production is a well-followed index because it has proven to be a very clean and useful data set over the years. While GDP numbers and CPI figures have drawn sideways glances from time to time, the jumpy electricity figures (note the regular Chinese New Year drop every year in Jan-Feb) are not considered politically sensitive. What the figures show this year is pretty consistent growth at around the 9%-10% level.

Iron Ore

Imported Iron Ore - Monthly
Source: Bloomberg

The other price to watch is the Iron Ore import price. China imports bulk iron ore from Australia, Brazil and other countries to feed the domestic and export production machines. From September 2011 to September 2012, the price of sea-borne Iron Ore almost halved as the Chinese economy softened. Part of that was due to the petering out of stimulus programs launched in 2008 and 2009 but the leadership change of 2012 also played a part in the overall bearishness.

Without much fanfare, the price has rebounded sharply, first to the 120 level and now into the 150’s. While most Australia exporters are still keeping $120 in their cashflow projections for the year, it is clear that Chinese demand for Iron Ore has returned.

Conclusion – Cautiously Optimistic

The Chinese Economy looks like it is stabilizing at high single digit growth rates. It is clearly not following the path of fellow BRIC members Russia and Brazil which have experienced sharp deceleration in growth rates over the last few years. The China ETFs are exposed primarily to the domestic market which our two indices above suggest will see some strength. But remember that most of the component stocks in the S&P 500 (SPY), EAFE (EFA) and the DAX (EWG) also have big stakes in China’s economic fortunes. With low expectations for the G8 economies, the global multinationals are looking at the massive middle class spending power forming in China and India to drive growth in the medium term.

FXI ranks well in our Balanced ETF Portfolio, which is the default portfolio in slot #7. It also comes out on top of our large ETF rankings.

How long will “January Effect” last?

Now that the politicians on both sides of the aisle have decided to take a bit more of the private economy in taxes and keep piling up debts for future generations, it is time for markets to return to normal seasonality and resume weighing up the prospects for different investment classes without constant reference to the hot political winds gusting out of Washington.

The question most investors should be contemplating is whether we will see a repeat of last year when the equity markets extended the “January Effect” through the entire first quarter of the year.

The FundLogik application indicates that now is the time allocate a larger portion of your assets towards the “risk” end of the spectrum. Whether that momentum peters our in February or steams on until the beginning of April remains to be seen.

In the 6 ETF FundLogik Portfolio, Non-US large cap equities (represented by EFA) and the Emerging Market Equities (represented by EEM) are ahead of SPY, TLT and DBC with QQQ bringing up the rear. However, if the January Effect does stretch further into the first quarter, it would be logical to expect QQQ to move up smartly in the rankings.

In the sample bond portfolio, Convertibles and Emerging Market debt funds are leading the pack. This suggests an appetite for more risk and a reach for yield.

In the sample equity portfolio, European Equities ranks at the top while Emerging Markets replaces Developed Markets, largely mirroring the FundLogik Portfolio ranking.

In the Blended ETF Portfolio, China (FXI) and International Real Estate (RWX) come out at the top of the list. China was volatile for most of last year but picked up steam after the leadership transition was completed. Real Estate is both a yield play and a capital gains play.

Political Risks will resurface

There are still a few more “political crises” to come, all of them just as manufactured as the one that was “narrowly averted” in the wee hours of the New Year. Whatever one’s political leanings, most can agree that the resolutions are of the “kick the can down the road” variety. Despite the promises to do better next time, the bottom line is that the new political line up in Washington looks the same as the old line up. There is little reason to expect a different outcome next time.

So, what does this mean for investors?

“January effect” should be fairly well pronounced this year. A combination of tax loss harvesting from a volatile 2012, the rehashing of the Euro crisis, leadership change in China and the political drama in the US means that institutions entered 2013 with a bias towards safe assets. Don’t be surprised to see money flowing back into QQQ and SPY favorites as fund managers rebalance for first quarter optimism.

Last year, the “risk off” trade was US Treasuries, the US dollar and, at times, precious metals. But these asset classes have rallied hard in recent years. It is hard to see how there is much upside left in these assets, particularly US Treasuries. The conditions which support the high prices will persist: a still massive US current account deficit, FED purchases of Treasuries and the fact that many other major currencies, particularly the Euro, don’t look very promising relative to the US dollar. Since none of those conditions appear ripe for change in the near term, one can expect continued fund flows towards two of the largest asset classes. There will continue to be “worry pieces” in the financial media about China, Japan or Middle East sovereign wealth funds looking to “dump” their Treasuries. The outcome will be no different; these large holders can shift at the margin but cannot dump. US dollars flowing out through the Current Account will flow back into US Treasuries and other similarly overpriced assets for the foreseeable future.

That does not mean there will be no volatility. Given the fact that both the household and government sectors are still massively in debt, even small shock events will continue to be magnified by the excessive leverage that remains in the system.

The real question is that of rebalancing. Will institutions remain happy to add to their piles of low yielding US Treasuries and cash as well as their non-yielding hoards of Gold? Or will we see more shifting towards riskier assets? At the margin, it is not the foreign sovereign wealth fund that drives the asset allocation but the large US institutions. If a consensus forms that equities and real estate assets are a better value than US Treasuries (ie. not just lip service but actual shifts in asset allocations), then we could see a rise in interest rates combined with a strong surge of liquidity into the stock and property markets. The stock markets will react positively while the US real estate market would probably just accelerate the digestion of the inventory hangover of the last 5 years.

At this point it is hard to say which way the balance will swing. Low growth in the G-8 economies could give comfort to asset allocators that the lofty values at the long end of the Treasury market will be supported by the FED’s commitment to “twisting” the yield curve. A change to the delicate balance however could send investors scrambling. The bloated FED balance sheet plus Bernanke’s commitment to keep interest rates low for as long as possible may not be enough to stem the rush for the exits.

For now, the FundLogik application is pointing towards a healthy “January Effect”. Position yourself accordingly.

The Meaning of 7.5% Growth

China recently announced that the target for economic growth has been lowered from 8% to 7.5%. For most countries, this would hardly rate more than a line or two buried deep in the middle of the paper. However, for China, the 8% growth rate is deeply symbolic. The 8% rate has been a key metric against which the Communist Party has measured itself in this latest 10 year political cycle. Anything below 8% growth is cast as the equivalent of a recession. The success of one party rule in China hinges on the ability of that party to deliver the economic goodies.

The actual number will probably come in at least 1% over or under the official 7.5% target. But all of China’s provinces and Special Municipalities are now on notice to make sure that the numbers they serve up to Beijing are in accordance with the new policy. Conspicuous bank lending to property developers is no longer in the cards.

Looking beyond China, how does this downgrade impact markets around the world? The immediate knee jerk reaction is negative but it will be interesting to see if investors can shift their mindset from the immediate aftershock of the Global Financial Crisis. In 2008/2009, demand from China, India and Brazil amongst other emerging markets was crucial to sustaining overall global demand. The largest non-financial companies in the US and Europe would have suffered much more severely without the boost of emerging markets demand. Additionally, China was a major purchaser of US Treasury bonds as China sought to recycle its massive trade surplus with the US. That position has now shifted to the Federal Reserve.

Now, however, a slowdown in Chinese demand may not prove as catastrophic as it would have three years ago.

In the US, there is both slack in the economy and signs that domestic demand is on the mend. Bank lending growth, which had been moribund despite heroic efforts from the Federal Reserve to pump high powered money into the financial system, is finally starting to show the early signs of a recovery. Housing prices at this point are a lagging indicator because there is so much built up inventory both on the market today and likely to come onto market at any sign of better activity. The real issue for the US economy is whether the nascent recovery will get strangled by higher commodity prices feeding into inflation. A China coming off the boil at this point could be just what the Bernanke FED needs to keep an accommodative monetary policy running into 2013 without kicking off double digit inflation.

In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to take a page from the Federal Reserve and double down on their Long Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO) which offers troubled European Banks three year money at 1%. Like QE1 & QE2 (Quantitative Easing) rounds in the US, European banks have done the sensible thing and turned the money around into ECB deposits or matching maturity sovereign debt in order to catch the fat spreads at the lowest risk possible. Europe is more exposed to Chinese demand for capital goods than the US but it is obvious that Europe is heading into recession regardless. In fact, it is Europe’s weakness that probably tipped the scales and forced the China to downgrade its GDP target. So, basically, China’s growth is not the most burning issue in Europe’s capitals these days. A more pressing question is whether the ECB is complicit in an effort to drive down the value of the Euro so that export dependent Italy, investment dependent Ireland and tourist dependent Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece can regain a competitive advantage.

So, interestingly, China doesn’t really matter quite as much as it has in the last three or four years as a global engine of demand. It will be interesting to see if the markets recognize the admittedly temporary change in circumstances.

The System numbers do not suggest a significant change in fortune…don’t let a 50 basis point cut in China’s GDP rate spook you unless you are overexposed to Shanghai luxury apartment units.

Chinese Numbers

The market took great comfort in the 4Q GDP number (+8.9%) published an efficient 17 days after the end of the quarter (perhaps the BEA could pick up a few pointers). With a small improvement over the consensus of 8.7%, concerns of a weak Chinese economy have been banished from the 24 hour news cycle for the time being.

China GDP

Source: Bloomberg

However, investors should probably look elsewhere for comfort.

Although China’s multi-decade economic rise is beyond dispute, China’s GDP pronouncements are more about Beijing’s economic policy thinking than a hard accounting of the sum total of goods and services produced in the PRC over a particular quarter. In my association with the Chinese markets, they have been playing this game since at least 1992 when the B share markets opened to foreign investors in Shanghai and Shenzhen.

For the next few announcements, a number too close to 8% would be signal leadership concern for a stalling economy and that a massive state intervention (a credit loosening) is imminent. A number which leans closer to double digits would signal concerns of domestic economic overheating and would foreshadow a credit tightening cycle to tame inflationary pressures. The thresholds change slightly from year to year but the game does not. China is signalling a “wait and see” stance for the time being. For Chinese provinces and municipalities which rely heavily on a bubbly property market to keep their finances in order, that message is not the one they are waiting for. Domestic demand in China is still driven primarily by investment rather than private consumption. And especially since the Global Financial Crisis, much of that investment has been skewed towards the property sector.

In the meantime, one of the “canaries in the mine” has definitely slipped off its perch. The Baltic Dry Index has halved since mid-December. Despite the name, the BDI covers shipping routes across the globe and the primary cargoes are coal, iron ore and grain. The index is subject to impressive swings because the supply of ships is fairly inelastic while demand for cargo is highly elastic That said, a 50% drop attributed to weaker Chinese demand for iron ore shipments, is not something one should ignore.

Baltic Dry Index

Source: Bloomberg

Australia’s “Two Speed” Economy

If China is in fact cooling its demand for iron ore in response to a general domestic slowdown, one should look at the short side of the Australian ETF, EWA. The Australian market is heavily weighted towards resources and financials and any trouble with Australia’s largest export market should show up in the market soon.

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